#COVID19: les chiffres ne doivent pas nous impressionner ! Il ne faut pas stresser inutilement

(Extrait des propos du Dr Fernand Ombolo, Président de SOS Médecins Cameroun)

«J’aimerais attirer l’attention de tous sur 2 points qui me semblent intéressants :

🛑 848 ne représente pas le nombre actuel de cas de Coronavirus au Cameroun, tout simplement parce que la grande majorité n’a pas encore été diagnostiquée. La plupart des passagers du fameux vol en provenance de France, a été en contact avec AU MOINS 5 PERSONNES qui à leur tour ont été en contact avec un nombre incalculable de personnes. Si on suppose qu’il y a eu 100 passagers positifs au Covid19 (on sait tous que c’était plus), multiplions par 5 on est à 500 personnes; et que chacune des 500 personnes a été en contact avec seulement 20 autres dans son entourage (famille, amis ou collègues, etc), alors on est à 10 000 cas par ville (Yaoundé et Douala seulement). Ceci pour être vraiment très modeste dans les estimations.

Vous pourrez faire vous-même une simulation en multipliant 500 par 20, 30 , 50, 100 ou plus, en fonction de la sociabilité de chaque cas contact. Donc en réalité, l’ascension apparemment rapide du nombre de cas au quotidien ne devrait pas faire stresser davantage. CELA FERAIT PLUS DE MAL INUTILEMENT.

 Nous avons enregistré 10 décès à peine, ce qui fait un #TAUX_DE_LÉTALITÉ provisoire de 1,53 % au Cameroun, très en dessous de la tendance mondiale actuelle qui tutoie les 5%. C’EST LE CHIFFRE À MON SENS QU’IL FAUDRA LE PLUS SURVEILLER. Nous devons nous battre FÉROCEMENT, CHACUN EN CE QUI LE CONCERNE, pour bloquer la transmission du virus. Aux pouvoirs publics, médecins, et autres parties prenantes, D’ÉVITER AVEC ACHARNEMENT la survenue des cas graves dont le pronostic serait mauvais au vu des conditions actuelles. Ceci devant être fait, en renforçant le suivi des cas contacts, suspects ou même des cas légers à modérés.

Nous n’avons pas encore amorcé la #pente_de_la_courbe_épidémique et nous en sommes encore très loin du pic ou du #plateau. Les chiffres au quotidien ne doivent pas nous faire stresser plus que ça, car  les cas diagnostiqués se feront par vagues de 200 voire 500 ou davantage, dans les prochaines semaines.

 #SOYONS_CALME car ces cas sont déjà parmi nous, en déambulation par milliers à l’heure qu’il est et seront détectés progressivement d’où le respect du confinement et des mesures préventives. Nous devons concentrer NOS EFFORTS POUR BRISER LA CHAÎNE DE TRANSMISSION afin de réduire au maximum la probabilité de survenue de #cas_graves, et donc de #décès_potentiels.

L’effort gouvernemental est déterminant dans ce processus ! Certaines mesures sont déjà prises MAIS ON DOIT FAIRE MIEUX CHAQUE JOUR, ETNOUS EN AVONS LES MOYENS ! Je salue au passage le travail actif du #MINISTRE_DE_LA_SANTÉ_PUBLIQUE qui fait de son mieux malgré le ”contexte camerounais”, toujours assez particulier. Nous faisons tous partie d’un bateau que nous devons empêcher de couler, inutile de s’entretuer pour le moment.

Soyons #altruistes (même pas égoïsme ou par intérêt personnel), soyons plus que jamais #intelligents et *#solidaires (PAS BESOIN DE DÉCRET POUR ÇA), rien n’est perdu car notre destin est encore entre nos mains ! Brisons la chaîne de transmission, c’est notre seule voie de salut à ce jour… Que Dieu nous vienne en aide. (…) »

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